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UnSkewed Average -- Presidential Approval
QStarNews poll methodology
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The primary reasons for Romney's ineffective campaign
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The QStarNews poll turns out to have been skewed
Regarding my comments about Nate Silver's appearance
Do you still think the polls were skewed?
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Example of UnSkewing a Poll
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An UnSkewed time-line of the skewed polls controversy
The time-line of the skewed polls controversy is divided into three phases. The first, in light blue, is when the polls were skewed without much questioning of the issue. The second, in yellow, is when the issue was raised, mostly here, and UnSkewedPolls.com starts getting media attention. The third, or the red phase, is the response, as predicted here, by pollsters when they began to skew the polls less.
Blue: Skewed polls bliss
Some of the polls were skewed by double digits and despite all the skewing, note that Obama still had only small leads in most of the polls. But the CNN/ORC poll of 9/10 skewed too far and showed a six percent lead for Obama, and the article covering that poll was mostly read by Rush Limbaugh on his program on 9/11 after being linked the evening of 9/10 and most of the day 9/11 on The Drudge Report. This began the process of the skewed polls issue getting more attention, especially in the more conservative media and blogosphere. Average skew in the polls during this period: 11.3 percent.
Yellow: They're still skewing the polls
On September 16 this web site went online. Within days it was tweeted by Rick Perry and David Limbaugh, mentioned by Rush Limbaugh on air as “nonskeewedpolls.com” and parodied on television by Stephen Colbert. Numerous blog sites and radio stations covered the issues and articles in Buzzfeed.com, TalkingPointsMemo.com and even the Wall Street Journal were written about this site and the skewed polls issue. Average skew in the polls during this period: 10.5 percent.
Red: They skew the polls less
As predicted here, the pollsters begin taking concern for accuracy over desired results, and begin skewing the polls less. And not ironically, as they do that, even before the first presidential debate, the polls get closer. While Obama lead in every poll during the yellow error and by an average of 6 percent, the skew during the red phase declines to 4.8 points and the average Obama lead falls to just 1.5 percent. In the last five polls done, Romney has an average lead of 1.6 percent while the average skew of those polls is 3 percent. So clearly the polls are skewed less and Romney is leading and starting to lead by even larger margins. The illusion of Obama winning has disappeared. Even liberals who said the race was all but over are admitting they were wrong and acknowledging that Romney just might win this election.
Only three voices have consistently told you, all throughout this year after winning the nomination, that Romney is going to win: this web site and it's author, Rush Limbaugh and Dick Morris.
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