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Released November 5, 2012

Final Projection: Romney 275 electoral votes to Obama 263 electoral votes

The qstarnews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 50.67 percent of the popular vote and 275 electoral votes to President Obama's 48.88 percent and 263 electoral votes.

qstarnews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 36.4 percent Democrats, 36.1 Republicans and 27.5 percent independents. qstarnews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 131,165,384 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama.

Methodology: For EACH state, all of the following information was considered: results from the last four elections averaged together, recent political trends in that state (such as Republicans winning control of both houses of the state legislature in 2010 in Maine and New Hampshire), recent trends in demographic makeup that affect the politics of the state (such as the growth of hispanics in Colorado causing the Democratic Party to become more competitive), and the degree to which one or both of the major campaigns are targetting that state, such as both campaigns making Ohio the most important state and campaigning there more than any other state, and any other relevant political factors and data such as public polls from a variety of pollling firms, as well as data from the qstarnews polls of the presidential race. From all of this information a percentage breakdown of each state is calculated between Romney and Obama. This projection is expected to be spot-on accurate for predicting the outcome in all 50 states and the District of Columbia and close to the actual popular vote.

All the projections and prognosticators agree on the other 39 states and the District of Columbia, leaving the disagreements on which candidate is going to win most of the infamous 11 keys swing states, often referred to as “battleground” states by some. qstarnews and UnSkewedPolls.com have conducted three survey of these 11 keys swing states, including the latest one. Those 11 states are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Among those states that all seem to agree on in projecting, President Obama leads with 201 electoral votes to Mitt Romney having 191 electoral votes. The Real Clear Politics map with toss-up states, shows those states that are clearly consensus who will win those. Below is the anaylsis of how the 11 keys swing states will fall when all the votes are counted, recounted, litigated, reviewed, recanvassed or whatever else might happen.

Iowa, New Hampshire and Wisconsin are going to be some of the closest states in the entire election. They are all too close to call by the latest polling data. Commentary Kirsten Powers pointed out something interesting about these states on Fox News tonight, that they all allow same-day voter registration and that the Obama campaign has been very good at getting voters registered and voting in states that allow this. That point is well-taken and for that reason these states will very narrowly go for President Obama. That puts the electoral count 221 Obama to 191 Romney.

The next grouping of swing states are Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. These have historically been “red” states and Romney leads in the RCP average in North Carolina and Florida. It's an easy prediction to call those for Romney. Virginia shows a very small Obama lead in the RCP average that is skewed by a few late-reporting skewed polls. Removing those, the RCP average in Virginia would favor Romney as it did just a day or two ago. Mitt Romney will win Virginia close. These states are worth 57 electoral votes, and move the count to Obama 221 to Romney 248.

Like that grouping, the grouping of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada are states that are close but are more likely to go for President Obama. Obama leads in the RCP average in all three, and will win these three. They are worth 42 electoral votes, which brings the count to Obama 263 to Romney 248.

Colorado is in a category by itself. The RCP average shows Obama leading 48.8 percent to Romney at 47.3 percent. Mitt Romney has campaigned extensively in this race recently, has had some great rallies and connected well with the voters. The last Rasmussen survey of the state, based on a very balanced and fair sample, shows Romney winning the state 50 percent to 47 percent. Other than a skewed Public Policy Polling survey, the rest of the polls show Romney tied or leading or trailing by a margin that is within the margin of error. The vote will be within one or two percent with Romney winning Colorado. That puts the count at Obama 263 to Romney 257 with only Ohio left to decide the election.

The race is Ohio is like the national race, it is a story of many believing skewed polls that show President Obama performing stronger than he really is while Romney is likely to surprise them in winning it. Many of the polls for Ohio are skewed and so too is the RCP average because of that. The most recent poll for Ohio is the Ohio Poll/Univ. of Cincinnati survey that shows Obama leading 50 percent to 49 percent with a 3.3 percent margin of error. The latest Rasmussen poll of Ohio has the race in the state tied at 49 percent.

As Karl Rove has pointed out, the Democrats huge advantage in early voting from 2008 has been lessened by a more effective Republican early voting organization this year. This year's early voting includes more than 576,000 Democrats to 492,000 Republicans. That margin is about 265,000 less than the larger margin by which Democrats dominated early voting four years ago in Ohio. That cancels the 262,000 vote margin by which Obama won Ohio four years ago. The election day voting in 2008 was won by McCain by 75,000 votes, who lost the state overall since Obama had won the early voting by more than 337,000 votes. Additionally, it is estimated that more than 350,000 evangelical Christians, who were primary supporters of Mike Huckabee in the 2008 primaries, did not turn out to vote for McCain in the general election.

Mitt Romney is going to easily win the election day voting in Ohio, and the more of those 350,000 evangelicals voting only adds to Romney's margin in Ohio. Romney will win Ohio by two or three percent state-wide and about 200,000 votes. With Ohio's 18 electoral votes, Mitt Romney wins the election with 275 electoral votes to Barack Obama at 263 electoral votes.

Below is the map of the electoral votes and then below that the raw data showing both percentages and actual projected number of votes for the two candidates in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Historical data from the last four elections is included for comparing.

Data from last four elections and projection of popular vote by state for 2012

State	Clinton 1996	Dole 1996	Gore 2000	Bush 2000	Kerry 2004	Bush 2004	Obama 2008	McCain 2008	State	Projected Obama	Projected Romney	Projected pop Obama	Projected pop Romney
Alabama	43	50	42	56	37	63	39	60	Alabama	37.78	62.22	823784	1356692
Alaska	33	51	28	59	35.5	61.1	37.7	60.2	Alaska	36.4	62.8	104912	181001
Arizona	46	44	45	51	44.4	54.9	45	53.8	Arizona	43.95	55.9	960425	1221565
Arkansas	54	37	46	51	44.5	54.4	38.8	58.8	Arkansas	44.68	55.27	492935	609770
California	51	38	53	42	54.3	44.4	60.9	37.3	California	57.65	42.3	7070122	5187617
Colorado	44	46	42	51	47	51.7	53.5	44.9	Colorado	49.48	50.37	1162174	1183078
Connecticut	52	35	56	38	54.3	43.9	60.5	38.3	Connecticut	54.55	43.77	916169	735118
Delaware	52	37	55	42	53.3	45.8	61.9	37	Delaware	57.4	42.42	245751	181616
District of Columbia	85	9	85	9	89.2	9.3	92.9	6.5	District of Columbia	86.88	13.42	205458	31736
Florida	48	42	49	49	47.1	52.1	50.9	48.4	Florida	47.6	52.85	4040052	4485646
Georgia	46	47	43	55	41.4	58	47	52.2	Georgia	43.2	58.02	1765273	2370860
Hawaii	57	32	56	37	54	45.3	71.8	26.6	Hawaii	58.55	40.2	273714	187930
Idaho	34	52	28	67	30.3	68.4	36.1	61.5	Idaho	30.95	67.2	206752	448908
Illinois	54	37	55	43	54.8	44.5	61.8	36.9	Illinois	55.25	44.5	3074892	2476610
Indiana	42	47	41	57	39.3	59.9	49.9	49	Indiana	41.9	57.2	1191545	1626644
Iowa	50	40	49	48	49.3	49.9	54	44.7	Iowa	49.88	49.62	783383	779300
Kansas	36	54	37	58	36.6	62	41.4	56.8	Kansas	36.6	62.67	455595	780114
Kentucky	46	45	41	57	39.7	59.5	41.1	57.5	Kentucky	40.8	59.72	766739	1122296
Louisiana	52	40	45	53	42.2	56.7	39.9	58.6	Louisiana	43.63	57.05	883513	1155270
Maine	52	31	49	44	53.6	44.6	57.6	40.5	Maine	51.9	47.6	391099	358696
Maryland	54	38	56	40	56	43	61.9	36.8	Maryland	55.83	44.42	1476418	1174682
Massachusetts	61	28	60	33	62	36.9	62	36.2	Massachusetts	60.1	38.5	1890226	1210877
Michigan	52	38	51	46	51.2	47.8	57.4	40.9	Michigan	51.75	48.15	2669104	2483427
Minnesota	51	35	48	46	51.5	48	54.2	44	Minnesota	51.03	48.22	1526389	1442337
Mississippi	44	49	41	58	40.1	59.1	42.8	56.4	Mississippi	39.83	60.6	505258	768733
Missouri	47	41	47	50	46.1	53.3	49.3	49.4	Missouri	46.2	53.4	1398891	1616900
Montana	41	44	33	58	38.6	59.1	47.2	49.7	Montana	38.8	57.67	192106	285535
Nebraska	35	54	33	62	32.7	66	41.5	57	Nebraska	34.4	64.72	278265	523527
Nevada	44	43	46	50	48.1	50.7	55.1	42.7	Nevada	52.15	47.57	516841	471450
New Hampshire	49	39	47	48	50.4	49	54.3	44.8	New Hampshire	50.03	49.84	368523	367124
New Jersey	54	36	56	40	53	46.2	56.8	42.1	New Jersey	53.8	46.05	2050895	1755460
New Mexico	49	42	48	48	49	49.8	56.7	42	New Mexico	53.53	46.42	454305	393963
New York	59	31	60	35	58.4	40.1	62.2	36.7	New York	58.75	40.67	4280956	2963514
North Carolina	44	49	43	56	43.6	56.1	49.9	49.5	North Carolina	44.98	54.62	1999245	2427718
North Dakota	40	47	33	61	35.5	62.9	44.7	53.3	North Dakota	37.15	61.02	120781	198387
Ohio	47	40	46	50	48.7	50.8	51.2	47.2	Ohio	47.75	50.97	2612434	2788603
Oklahoma	40	48	38	60	34.4	65.6	34.4	65.6	Oklahoma	35.55	64.77	545743	994311
Oregon	47	39	47	47	51.6	47.4	57.1	40.8	Oregon	50.53	48.52	890436	855016
Pennsylvania	49	40	51	46	51	48.5	54.7	44.3	Pennsylvania	50.28	49.47	3050866	3001717
Rhode Island	60	27	61	32	59.4	38.7	63.1	35.3	Rhode Island	59.73	38.22	275028	175985
South Carolina	44	50	41	57	41	58.1	44.9	53.8	South Carolina	41.58	58.7	815933	1151882
South Dakota	43	46	38	60	38.4	59.9	44.7	53.2	South Dakota	39.88	59.75	156569	234579
Tennessee	48	46	47	51	42.6	56.9	41.8	56.9	Tennessee	43.7	56.67	1170634	1518074
Texas	44	49	38	59	38.2	61.1	43.8	55.5	Texas	39.85	60.12	3342761	5043081
Utah	33	54	26	67	26.4	72.7	34.2	62.9	Utah	28.75	69.12	258788	622171
Vermont	53	31	51	41	58.9	38.8	67.8	30.6	Vermont	56.53	40.32	188692	134584
Virginia	45	47	44	52	45.6	53.8	52.7	46.4	Virginia	48.88	50.77	1890993	1964111
Washington	50	37	50	45	52.8	45.6	57.5	40.5	Washington	51.43	47	1428236	1305213
West Virginia	51	37	46	52	43.2	56.1	42.6	55.7	West Virginia	44.55	55.17	325439	403018
Wisconsin	49	39	48	48	49.7	49.4	56.3	42.4	Wisconsin	49.98	49.67	1536929	1527396
Wyoming	37	50	28	68	29.1	69	32.7	65.2	Wyoming	30.55	68.02	77350	172221
Total	49	41	48	48	48.3	50.7	53	46	Total	48.88	50.67	64109321	66456063

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