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Released October 25, 2012

The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race

The qstarnews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 53.63 percent of the popular vote and 359 electoral votes to President Obama's 45.92 percent and 179 electoral votes.

qstarnews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats, and 30.0 percent independents. qstarnews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 130,955,000 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama.

Methodology: For EACH state, all of the following information was considered: results from the last four elections averaged together, recent political trends in that state (such as Republicans winning control of both houses of the state legislature in 2010 in Maine and New Hampshire), recent trends in demographic makeup that affect the politics of the state (such as the growth of hispanics in Colorado causing the Democratic Party to become more competitive), and the degree to which one or both of the major campaigns are targetting that state, such as both campaigns making Ohio the most important state and campaigning there more than any other state, and any other relevant political factors and data such as public polls from a variety of pollling firms, as well as data from the qstarnews polls of the presidential race. From all of this information a percentage breakdown of each state is calculated between Romney and Obama. This projection is expected to be spot-on accurate for predicting the outcome in all 50 states and the District of Columbia and close to the actual popular vote.

Perhaps some of the most surprising states to some will be the following:

Colorado: 54-45 Romney -- a suprise for many still expecting Obama to carry Colorado

Connecticut: 51-47 Obama -- closer than expected, and probably an indication that Linda McMahon wins the state's U.S. Senate seat

Florida: 54-46 Romney

Iowa: 54-46 Romney -- many don't expect this

Maine: 49-49 Obama -- much closer than expected

Michigan: 51-48 Romney -- the surprise of the night, Romney's home state ties are more key than Obama's claims to have "saved" the domestic auto industry

Nevada: 52-47 Romney -- this will surprise many

Minnesota: 51-47 Romney -- this will surprise many

New Hampshire: 53-46 Romney

New Jersey: 50-49 Obama -- much much closer than expected, the Romney campaign will re-allocate resources to New Jersey if they believe this number

New Mexico: 53-46 Romney -- most don't expect Romney to win New Mexico

Ohio: 54-46 Romney -- Late momentum and great ground game win the Buckeye state for Romney

Oregon: 52-46 Romney -- major surprise

Pennsylvania: 53-47 Romney -- big time upset

Washington: 51-49 Obama -- closer than expected

Below is the map of the electoral votes and then below that the raw data showing both percentages and actual projected number of votes for the two candidates in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Historical data from the last four elections is included for comparing.

Data from last four elections and projection of popular vote by state for 2012

State	Clinton 1996	Dole 1996	Gore 2000	Bush 2000	Kerry 2004	Bush 2004	Obama 2008	McCain 2008	State	Projected Obama	Projected Romney	Projected pop Obama	Projected pop Romney
Alabama	43	50	42	56	37	63	39	60	Alabama	35.6	65.22	776249	1422106
Alaska	33	51	28	59	35.5	61.1	37.7	60.2	Alaska	28.9	65.8	83295	189648
Arizona	46	44	45	51	44.4	54.9	45	53.8	Arizona	40.45	58.9	883941	1287123
Arkansas	54	37	46	51	44.5	54.4	38.8	58.8	Arkansas	41.18	58.27	454321	642868
California	51	38	53	42	54.3	44.4	60.9	37.3	California	57.15	42.4	7008802	5199881
Colorado	44	46	42	51	47	51.7	53.5	44.9	Colorado	44.98	54.37	1056479	1277029
Connecticut	52	35	56	38	54.3	43.9	60.5	38.3	Connecticut	51.05	46.77	857386	785503
Delaware	52	37	55	42	53.3	45.8	61.9	37	Delaware	53.9	45.42	230766	194460
District of Columbia	85	9	85	9	89.2	9.3	92.9	6.5	District of Columbia	92.38	6.42	218465	15182
Florida	48	42	49	49	47.1	52.1	50.9	48.4	Florida	46.1	53.85	3912739	4570521
Georgia	46	47	43	55	41.4	58	47	52.2	Georgia	39.7	61.02	1622253	2493449
Hawaii	57	32	56	37	54	45.3	71.8	26.6	Hawaii	55.05	43.2	257352	201955
Idaho	34	52	28	67	30.3	68.4	36.1	61.5	Idaho	27.45	70.2	183371	468949
Illinois	54	37	55	43	54.8	44.5	61.8	36.9	Illinois	53.75	46.32	2991410	2577900
Indiana	42	47	41	57	39.3	59.9	49.9	49	Indiana	38.4	61.2	1092013	1740395
Iowa	50	40	49	48	49.3	49.9	54	44.7	Iowa	45.93	53.62	721347	842121
Kansas	36	54	37	58	36.6	62	41.4	56.8	Kansas	33.1	65.67	412027	817458
Kentucky	46	45	41	57	39.7	59.5	41.1	57.5	Kentucky	37.3	62.72	700965	1178674
Louisiana	52	40	45	53	42.2	56.7	39.9	58.6	Louisiana	40.13	60.05	812638	1216020
Maine	52	31	49	44	53.6	44.6	57.6	40.5	Maine	49.4	49.2	372260	370753
Maryland	54	38	56	40	56	43	61.9	36.8	Maryland	54.33	45.42	1436751	1201127
Massachusetts	61	28	60	33	62	36.9	62	36.2	Massachusetts	56.6	41.5	1780147	1305231
Michigan	52	38	51	46	51.2	47.8	57.4	40.9	Michigan	48.25	51.15	2488585	2638158
Minnesota	51	35	48	46	51.5	48	54.2	44	Minnesota	46.53	51.22	1391786	1532072
Mississippi	44	49	41	58	40.1	59.1	42.8	56.4	Mississippi	37.33	63.6	473545	806789
Missouri	47	41	47	50	46.1	53.3	49.3	49.4	Missouri	42.7	56.4	1292914	1707737
Montana	41	44	33	58	38.6	59.1	47.2	49.7	Montana	35.3	60.67	174777	300388
Nebraska	35	54	33	62	32.7	66	41.5	57	Nebraska	30.9	67.72	249953	547794
Nevada	44	43	46	50	48.1	50.7	55.1	42.7	Nevada	46.65	52.57	462332	521003
New Hampshire	49	39	47	48	50.4	49	54.3	44.8	New Hampshire	45.53	53.17	335376	391653
New Jersey	54	36	56	40	53	46.2	56.8	42.1	New Jersey	50.43	49.05	1922429	1869822
New Mexico	49	42	48	48	49	49.8	56.7	42	New Mexico	46.03	53.42	390653	453371
New York	59	31	60	35	58.4	40.1	62.2	36.7	New York	55.25	43.67	4025920	3182116
North Carolina	44	49	43	56	43.6	56.1	49.9	49.5	North Carolina	40.48	60.62	1799232	2694403
North Dakota	40	47	33	61	35.5	62.9	44.7	53.3	North Dakota	33.65	64.02	109402	208140
Ohio	47	40	46	50	48.7	50.8	51.2	47.2	Ohio	45.58	53.97	2493712	2952735
Oklahoma	40	48	38	60	34.4	65.6	34.4	65.6	Oklahoma	32.05	67.77	492013	1040365
Oregon	47	39	47	47	51.6	47.4	57.1	40.8	Oregon	46.03	51.52	811137	907881
Pennsylvania	49	40	51	46	51	48.5	54.7	44.3	Pennsylvania	46.78	52.67	2838495	3195885
Rhode Island	60	27	61	32	59.4	38.7	63.1	35.3	Rhode Island	56.23	41.22	258912	189798
South Carolina	44	50	41	57	41	58.1	44.9	53.8	South Carolina	38.08	62.7	747252	1230375
South Dakota	43	46	38	60	38.4	59.9	44.7	53.2	South Dakota	36.38	62.75	142828	246357
Tennessee	48	46	47	51	42.6	56.9	41.8	56.9	Tennessee	40.2	60.67	1076876	1625225
Texas	44	49	38	59	38.2	61.1	43.8	55.5	Texas	36.35	64.12	3049168	5378615
Utah	33	54	26	67	26.4	72.7	34.2	62.9	Utah	25.25	72.12	227283	649175
Vermont	53	31	51	41	58.9	38.8	67.8	30.6	Vermont	53.03	43.32	177009	144598
Virginia	45	47	44	52	45.6	53.8	52.7	46.4	Virginia	42.18	57.77	1631794	2234916
Washington	50	37	50	45	52.8	45.6	57.5	40.5	Washington	50.93	48.76	1414351	1354089
West Virginia	51	37	46	52	43.2	56.1	42.6	55.7	West Virginia	41.05	58.17	299871	424933
Wisconsin	49	39	48	48	49.7	49.4	56.3	42.4	Wisconsin	46.1	52.67	1417615	1619649
Wyoming	37	50	28	68	29.1	69	32.7	65.2	Wyoming	27.05	71.02	68488	179817
Total	49	41	48	48	48.3	50.7	53	46	Total	45.92	53.63	60128685	70226212

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